Sunday, February 24, 2008

Obama - the guy without a resume

Barak Obama is leading the battle for the Democratic nomination and Hillary Clinton is completely confused as to how to gain ground against her rival.

In the debate in Texas she essentially asked the American people why they would consider nominating and potentially electing a man who lacks the qualifications to be President. The answer is the very thing she attacks, his inspirational story and speeches. That raises an interesting question: How "qualified" is Obama to be president relative to his opponents and recent history.

Here's my cheat sheet:

Education and Inspiration: Grouped together, does someone feel like a leader.
Type of Experience: Has someone been a Governor, Senator, Atty. General or led a major corporation? Governors tend to have the edge here because their experience seems more relevant to being the chief executive of our country.
Grasp of the Details: Does the candidate know the details of the policies he/she proposes

I'll give each candidate a rating based on a four point scale in each category. Feel free to debate my scoring.


Obama
E&I: 4
Exp: 1
Detail: 2

H. Clinton
E&I: 2
Exp: 2.5 (first lady bonus)
Detail: 4

McCain
E&I: 2.5 (war hero bonus)
Exp: 4
Detail: 4

Bush #2
E&I: 3
Exp: 3
Detail: 1

Gore
E&I: 1
Exp: 4
Detail: 4

Dole
E&I: 2
Exp: 4
Detail: 4

B. Clinton
E&I: 4 (-1 for personal behavior leading into his second term)
Exp: 3 (4 in his second term)
Detail: 4

Bush #1
E&I: 2
Exp: 4
Detail: 4

Reagan
E&I: 4 (despite his educational shortcomings)
Exp: 3 (first term), 4 second term
Detail: 2

Mondale
E&I: 3
Exp: 4
Detail: 4

Carter
E&I: 2
Exp: 3
Detail: 4

So, what sort of conclusions can we draw from this relatively simple approach to scoring our candidates?

First, it is clear that, as has been stated earlier in this blog, seeming presidential is worth more than the right types of experience and understanding the details of the major policy questions of the day. That's why, no matter what Hillary Clinton does, without a major shift in the electorate to a need for details she is in big trouble against Obama going forward. The economy may be that chance but the economic downturn needs to be felt very hard over the next few days...which isn't likely to happen so she's still got a tough rode ahead. (Superdelegates, however, tend to overvalue experience because that's their claim to fame - they're a superdelegate precisely because of their experience so she may be able to win the nomination anyway.)

For McCain v. Obama the question becomes is McCain's vast advantage in foreign affairs, military issues and policy making in general (as well as his relatively moderate stances on some of those issues like campaign finance reform, the environment and immigration) going to be enough to blunt Obama's charisma advantage? I believe the answer will be it depends. If Iraq continues to improve so McCain seems vindicated in his treatment of that issue then Obama will not have the arrow that he used to blunt Clinton's experience advantage - her vote for the war.

If McCain really wants to win he best hire some comedy writers to pump up his jokes a bit because the Straight Talk Express is in for a battle with the All Talk, No Record Northern Line and its making all stops.

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